Time trend and spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil. / Tendência temporal e distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the time trend and the spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil, according to age group and to race/skin color. METHOD: an ecological study of time series, with spatial distribution of the deaths of women victims of aggression, registered in the Mortality Information System, resident in Brazil, Brazilian geographic regions and states. Due to underreporting of deaths in some states, correction factors of the mortality rates were employed. For the trend analysis, we adopted the polynomial regression model. In addition to that, the mean rates and annual upward/downward trends were distributed considering the Brazilian federative units as analysis units. RESULTS: the mean rate was 6.24 cases of lethal violence per 100,000 women, with a significant variation across the Brazilian regions and states. The main victims of violent death in Brazil are young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women, with a growing trend in these population segments. The North and Northeast regions stood out with the most significant mean annual increases (0.33; r2= 0.96 and 0.26; r2= 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSION: there was a stable trend regarding lethal violence against women, with significant regional differences. Young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women are more vulnerable to violent death in Brazil.

Firearm Homicides and Suicides in Major Metropolitan Areas - United States, 2015-2016 and 2018-2019.

Firearm homicides and suicides represent an ongoing public health concern in the United States. During 2018-2019, a total of 28,372 firearm homicides (including 3,612 [13%] among youths and young adults aged 10-19 years [youths]) and 48,372 firearm suicides (including 2,463 [5%] among youths) occurred among U.S. residents (1). This report is the fourth in a series* that provides statistics on firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas. As with earlier reports, this report provides a special focus on youth violence, including suicide, recognizing the magnitude of the problem and the importance of early prevention efforts. Firearm homicide and suicide rates were calculated for the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)† for the periods 2015-2016 and 2018-2019, separated by a transition year (2017), using mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Following a period of decreased firearm homicide rates among persons of all ages after 2006-2007 in large metropolitan areas collectively and nationally, by 2015-2016 rates had returned to levels comparable to those observed a decade earlier and remained nearly unchanged as of 2018-2019. Firearm suicide rates among persons aged ≥10 years have continued to increase in large MSAs collectively as well as nationally. Although the youth firearm suicide rate remained much lower than the overall rate, the youth rate nationally also continued to increase, most notably outside of large MSAs. The findings in this report underscore a continued and urgent need for a comprehensive approach to prevention. This includes efforts to prevent firearm homicide and suicide in the first place and support individual persons and communities at increased risk, as well as lessening harms after firearm homicide and suicide have occurred.

Tendência temporal e distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil / Time trend and spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil / Tendencia temporal y distribución espacial de los casos de violencia letal contra la mujer en Brasil

Resumo Objetivo: analisar a tendência temporal e a distribuição espacial dos casos de violência letal contra mulheres no Brasil, segundo faixa etária e raça/cor. Método: estudo ecológico, de séries temporais, com distribuição espacial dos óbitos de mulheres vítimas de agressão, cadastrados no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, residentes no Brasil, regiões geográficas e estados brasileiros. Devido ao sub-registro de óbitos em alguns estados, empregaram-se fatores de correção das taxas de mortalidade. Para a análise de tendência, adotamos o modelo de regressão polinomial. Além disso, as taxas médias e as tendências de aumento/reduções anuais foram distribuídas considerando como unidade de análise as unidades federativas do Brasil. Resultados: a taxa média foi de 6,24 casos de violência letal por 100 mil mulheres, com variação importante entre as regiões e os estados brasileiros. As principais vítimas de morte violenta no Brasil são mulheres jovens, pretas/pardas e indígenas, com tendência de crescimento nessas populações. As Regiões Norte e Nordeste se destacaram com os aumentos anuais médios mais expressivos (0,33; r2 = 0,96 e 0,26; r2 = 0,92, respectivamente). Conclusão: evidenciou-se tendência de estabilidade da violência letal contra a mulher, com diferenças regionais significativas. Mulheres jovens, pretas/pardas e indígenas são mais vulneráveis à morte violenta no Brasil.

Abstract Objective: to analyze the time trend and the spatial distribution of the cases of lethal violence against women in Brazil, according to age group and to race/skin color. Method: an ecological study of time series, with spatial distribution of the deaths of women victims of aggression, registered in the Mortality Information System, resident in Brazil, Brazilian geographic regions and states. Due to underreporting of deaths in some states, correction factors of the mortality rates were employed. For the trend analysis, we adopted the polynomial regression model. In addition to that, the mean rates and annual upward/downward trends were distributed considering the Brazilian federative units as analysis units. Results: the mean rate was 6.24 cases of lethal violence per 100,000 women, with a significant variation across the Brazilian regions and states. The main victims of violent death in Brazil are young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women, with a growing trend in these population segments. The North and Northeast regions stood out with the most significant mean annual increases (0.33; r2= 0.96 and 0.26; r2= 0.92, respectively). Conclusion: there was a stable trend regarding lethal violence against women, with significant regional differences. Young, black-/brown-skinned and indigenous women are more vulnerable to violent death in Brazil.

Resumen Objetivo: analizar la tendencia temporal y la distribución espacial de los casos de violencia letal contra la mujer en Brasil, según la franja etaria y la raza/color. Método: estudio ecológico, de las series temporales, con distribución espacial de las muertes de mujeres víctimas de agresión, registradas en el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad, residentes en Brasil, regiones geográficas y estados brasileños. Debido a que hay subregistro de las muertes en algunos estados, se utilizaron factores de corrección para las tasas de mortalidad. Para el análisis de tendencias, adoptamos el modelo de regresión polinomial. Además, las tasas medias y las tendencias anuales de aumento/disminución fueron distribuidas considerando como unidad de análisis las unidades federativas de Brasil. Resultados: la tasa promedio fue de 6,24 casos de violencia letal por cada 100.000 mujeres, con variación significativa entre regiones y estados brasileños. Las principales víctimas de muerte violenta en Brasil son mujeres jóvenes, negras/morenas e indígenas y la tendencia es creciente en estas poblaciones. Las regiones Norte y Noreste presentaron los aumentos medios anuales más significativos (0,33; r2 = 0,96 y 0,26; r2 = 0,92, respectivamente). Conclusión: hubo una tendencia a la estabilidad de la violencia letal contra la mujer, con diferencias regionales significativas. Las mujeres jóvenes, negras/morenas e indígenas son más vulnerables a la muerte violenta en Brasil.

Socio-demographic and psychosocial characteristics of male and female perpetrators in intimate partner homicide: A case-control study from Region Västra Götaland, Sweden.

Risk factor studies on male-perpetrated intimate partner homicide (IPH) are often compared with studies on intimate partner violence (IPV) or non-partner homicide perpetrators. This not only excludes female perpetrators, but also fails to take socio-demographic and psychosocial differences between perpetrators and the general population into consideration. The aim of this study was to examine male- and female-perpetrated IPH cases, and to compare socio-demographic factors in IPH perpetrators and in matched controls from the general population. Data were retrieved from preliminary inquiries, court records and national registers for 48 men and 10 women, who were perpetrators of IPH committed in 2000-2016 and residing in Region Västra Götaland, Sweden. The control group consisted of 480 men and 100 women matched for age, sex and residence parish. Logistic regression, yielding odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), was performed for male perpetrators and male controls to investigate associations for selected socio-demographic and psychosocial characteristics. This was not performed for females due to the small sample size. Female perpetrators were convicted of murder to a lesser extent than male perpetrators. No woman was sentenced to life imprisonment while five men were. Jealousy and separation were the most common motivational factors for male perpetration while the predominant factor for female perpetrators was subjection to IPV. Statistically significant differences were found between male perpetrators and male controls in unemployment rate (n = 47.9%/20.6%; OR 4.4; 95% CI 2.2-8.6), receiving benefits (n = 20.8%/4.8%; OR 5.2; 95% CI 2.3-11.7) and annual disposable income (n = 43.8%/23.3% low income; OR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9-14.2) one year prior to the crime. Female IPH perpetrators were less educated than female controls (≤ 9-year education 30%/12%) and were more often unemployed (70%/23%) one year before the crime. Male and female IPH perpetrators were socio-economically disadvantaged, compared with controls from the general population.

US law enforcement policy predictors of race-specific police fatalities during 2015-16.

Mounting evidence suggests that law enforcement organizational factors contribute to higher incidence and racial disparities in police killings. To determine whether agency policies contribute to race-specific civilian fatalities, this exploratory study compared fatality rates among agencies with and without selected policies expected to reduce killings. A cross-section of 1085 fatalities in the 2015-2016 The Counted public-use database were matched to 481 agencies in the 2013 Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics (LEMAS) database. Negative binomial regression estimated incidence rate ratios (IRR) adjusted for agency type, number of officers, percent female personnel, median income, percent with a bachelor's degree, violent crime rate, and population size, with inference using robust standard errors. Agencies with greater proportions of full-time personnel (range 43-100%) had lower rates of all (IRR = 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.77-0.93) and non-White civilian killings (IRR = 0.85; CI = 0.73-0.99). Mission statements predicted lower rates of all (IRR = 0.70; CI = 0.58-0.84) and White killings (IRR = 0.60; CI = 0.40-0.90). Community evaluation and more types of personnel incentives predicted lower rates of White (IRR = 0.82; CI = 0.68-0.99) and non-White killings (IRR = 0.94; CI = 0.89-1.00), respectively. Increasing video use predicted higher rates of White killings (IRR = 1.13; CI = 1.01-1.28). No policies were significantly associated with Black civilian killings. Law enforcement policies that help reduce police killings may vary across racial groups with the least benefit for Black civilians. Impact evaluations and meta-analyses of initiatives aimed to mitigate fatalities should be explored, particularly policies to address anti-Black bias. A national registry tracking all police killings and agency policies is urgently needed to inform law enforcement policies aimed to mitigate civilian fatalities.

Homicide Epidemic in Cali, Colombia: A Surveillance System Data Analysis, 1993‒2018.

Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993-2018 period, using information derived from an interagency surveillance system. Methods. We used homicide data from Cali's Epidemiological Surveillance System to examine homicide trends by victim's age and sex, time, and type of method used. We estimated trend changes and the annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression analyses. Results. Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants dropped from 102 in 1993 to 47.8 in 2018. We observed reductions in homicide rates across age and sex groups. Most homicide victims were men aged 20 to 39 years from poor, marginalized areas. Firearms were used in 84.9% of all cases. The average annual percentage change for the entire period was -3.6 (95% confidence interval = -6.7, -0.4). Conclusions. Fluctuations in homicide rates in Cali show a clear epidemic pattern, occurring concurrently with the "crack epidemic" in different countries. Reliable and timely information provided by an Epidemiological Surveillance System allowed opportune formulation of public policies to reduce the impact of violence in Cali.

Tendência e diferenças regionais de homicídios masculinos por arma de fogo em um estado da Amazônia Legal, Brasil / Regional trends and differences in male homicides by firearms in a state in the Legal Amazon, Brazil Tendencias y diferencias regionales en los homicidios masculinos por armas de fuego en un estado de la Amazonia Legal, Brasil

Resumo: Objetivos: Analisar a tendência e projetar a taxa de homicídios por arma de fogo em homens jovens, segundo macrorregião de saúde, no estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Metodologia: Estudo ecológico, exploratório, de tendência temporal que utilizou dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Taxas de mortalidade padronizada pela população mundial foram calculadas. Para modelagem da série e predição da taxa de homicídio por arma de fogo para o período de 2018 a 2022 utilizou-se o modelo auto regressivo de ordem um - AR (1). Resultados: A macrorregião Centro Norte apresentou as maiores taxas de mortalidade por arma de fogo na maior parte dos anos. A menor taxa do período ocorreu em 2013, na macrorregião Leste. Assim como todo o estado de Mato Grosso, as macrorregiões Norte, Oeste, Sul apresentaram tendência crescente e significativa, enquanto nas macrorregiões Leste, Centro Norte e Centro Noroeste as taxas se mantiveram estáveis. Conclusão: A mortalidade de jovens do sexo masculino por armas de fogo foi elevada especialmente nas macrorregiões mais urbanizadas, com conflitos agrários e região de fronteira. Se as estratégias não forem mudadas, as taxas de homicídios de homens jovens por armas de fogo no Mato Grosso continuarão altas e/ou crescentes.

Abstract: Objectives: To analyze the trend and project the firearm homicide rate in young men, according to the health macro-region, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Methodology: Ecological, exploratory, time trend study that used data from the Mortality Information System. Mortality rates standardized by the world population were calculated. To model the series and predict the firearm homicide rate for the period from 2018 to 2022, the order one autoregressive model - AR (1) was used. Results: The Centro Norte macro-region had the highest firearm mortality rates in most years. The lowest rate in the period occurred in 2013, in the East macro-region. As with the entire state of Mato Grosso, the North, West, South macroregions showed an increasing and significant trend, while in the East, Central North and Central Northwest macroregions the rates remained stable. Conclusion:The mortality of young males by firearms was high especially in the most urbanized macro-regions, with agrarian conflicts and the border region. If the strategies are not changed, homicide rates of young men by firearms in Mato Grosso will continue to be high and/or increasing.

Resumen: Objetivos: Analizar la tendencia y proyectar la tasa de homicidios por arma de fuego en hombres jóvenes, según la macrorregión de salud, en el estado de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Metodología: Estudio ecológico, exploratorio, de tendencia temporal que utilizó datos del Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por la población mundial. Para modelar la serie y predecir la tasa de homicidios por arma de fuego para el período de 2018 a 2022, se utilizó el modelo autoregresivo de orden uno: AR (1). Resultados: La macrorregión Centro Norte tuvo las tasas de mortalidad por armas de fuego más altas en la mayoría de los años. La tasa más baja del período se produjo en 2013, en la macrorregión Este. Al igual que en todo el estado de Mato Grosso, las macrorregiones Norte, Oeste y Sur mostraron una tendencia creciente y significativa, mientras que en las macrorregiones Este, Centro Norte y Centro Noroeste las tasas se mantuvieron estables. Conclusión: La mortalidad de varones jóvenes por armas de fuego fue alta especialmente en las macrorregiones más urbanizadas, con conflictos agrarios y la región fronteriza. Si no se cambian las estrategias, las tasas de homicidio de hombres jóvenes por armas de fuego en Mato Grosso seguirán siendo altas y/o en aumento.

Variation in Non-external and External Causes of Death in Peru in Relation to the COVID-19 Lockdown.

Introduction: Lockdowns are designed to slow COVID-19 transmission, but they may have unanticipated relationships with other aspects of public health. Assessing the overall pattern in population health as a country implements and relaxes a lockdown is relevant, as these patterns may not necessarily be symmetric. We aimed to estimate the changing trends in cause-specific mortality in relation to the 2020 COVID-19 related lockdowns in Peru. Methods: Based on data from the Peruvian National Death Information System (SINADEF), we calculated death rates per 10 million population to assess the trends in mortality rates for non-external and external causes of death (suicides, traffic accidents, and homicides). We compared these trends to 2018-2019, before, during, and after the lockdown, stratified by sex, and adjusted by Peruvian macro-region (Lima & Callao (capital region), Coast, Highland, and Jungle). Results: Non-external deaths presented a distinctive pattern among macro-regions, with an early surge in the Jungle and a later increase in the Highland. External deaths dropped during the lockdown, however, suicides and homicides returned to previous levels in the post-lockdown period. Deaths due to traffic accidents dropped during the lockdown and returned to pre-pandemic levels by December 2020. Conclusions: We found a sudden drop in external causes of death, with suicides and homicides returning to previous levels after the lifting of the lockdown. Non-external deaths showed a differential pattern by macro-region. A close monitoring of these trends could help identify early spikes among these causes of death and take action to prevent a further increase in mortality indirectly affected by the pandemic.

Epidemiological profile of female firearm-related mortality.

ABSTRACT: The mortality rate of women due to firearms increases every day in Brazil and globally. This study aimed to evaluate the trends of firearm-related mortality in women from the years 2007 to 2016 in order to determine their profile and to associate these indicators with public policy and strategies to reduce mortality.This is an ecological time-series study using secondary data of women aged 10 to 49 years old collected through the mortality information system (SIM) in Brazil. Furthermore, independent characteristics such as education, color, race and civil status were also collected from SIM. Data was analyzed using the Join Point open source software version.There was an increase in the mortality rate of women who received 4 to the 7 years of education, were single, and brown-skinned. There was a significantly increased rate of mortality in women whose ages ranged from 20 to 29 years followed by 30 to 39 years; the rate was also significantly higher in the northeast region followed by the southeast region.There is a need for professional training to assist women in vulnerable situations.

Epidemiologic Trends in Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in the US, 2009-2017.

Importance: Firearm injury research in the US has focused on fatal injuries. The incidence and epidemiologic factors associated with nonfatal firearm injuries are less understood. Objective: To evaluate estimates of incidence and trends over time of fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional, ecologic study was conducted using data throughout the US from 2009 to 2017. Data on fatal injuries from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were combined with national data on emergency department visits for nonfatal firearm injury from the Nationwide Emergency Department (ED) sample. Data analysis was conducted from August 2019 to September 2020. Exposures: Firearm injuries identified with International Classification of Diseases external cause of injury codes and categorized by intent of injury, age group, and urban-rural location. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence, case fatality rate, and trends over time of firearm injury according to intent, age group, and urban-rural location. Results: From 2009 to 2017, there was a mean of 85 694 ED visits for nonfatal firearm injury and 34 538 deaths each year. An annual mean of 26 445 deaths (76.6%) occurred outside of the hospital. Assault was the most common overall mechanism (38.9%), followed by unintentional injuries (36.9%) and intentional self-harm (19.6%). Self-harm, which accounted for 21 128 deaths (61.2%), had the highest case fatality rate (89.4%; 95% CI, 88.5%-90.4%), followed by assault (25.9%; 95% CI, 23.7%-28.6%) and legal intervention (23.4%; 95% CI, 21.6%-25.5%). Unintentional injuries were the most common nonfatal injuries (43 729 [51.0%]) and had the lowest case fatality rate (1.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-1.3%). Self-harm deaths, 87.8% of which occurred outside the hospital, increased in all age groups in both rural and urban areas during the study period and were most common among people aged 55 years and older. The rate of fatal assault injuries was higher in urban than in rural areas (16.6 vs 9.0 per 100 000 per year) and highest among people aged 15 to 34 years (38.6 per 100 000 per year). Rates of unintentional injury were higher in rural than in urban areas (18.5 per 100 000 vs 12.4 per 100 000). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, suicide appears to be the most common cause of firearm injury death in the US, and most people who die from suicide never reach the hospital. These findings suggest that assaults and unintentional injuries account for most nonfatal and overall firearm injuries and for most of the injuries that are treated in hospitals.

Homicídios intencionais de mulheres com notificação prévia de violência / Homicidios intencionales de mujeres con notificación previa de violencia / Intentional homicides of women with prior notification of violence

Resumo Objetivo Descrever o perfil das mulheres vítimas de homicídios intencionais e com notificação prévia de violência. Métodos Trata-se de um estudo transversal, realizado no estado de Pernambuco, no período de 2012 a 2016. Foi empregado o relacionamento probabilístico entre todas as notificações de violência contra mulher, registradas no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação, e os homicídios de mulheres, registrados no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade. Resultados Identificou-se 121 homicídios que tinham notificações prévias de violência. As mulheres eram solteiras (88,9%), negras (91,7%) e com menos de sete anos de estudo (80,9%). A agressão física foi o tipo de violência mais notificado (65,8%), ocorrida na residência (66,7%) e cometida por parceiro/ex-parceiro íntimo (51,9%). O disparo de arma de fogo foi o principal meio utilizado (44,6%) e o óbito ocorreu em estabelecimento de saúde (41,3%). Mulheres com notificação prévia de violência tiveram risco 65,9 vezes maior de homicídio, quando comparadas com a população geral de mulheres. Conclusão Descrever o perfil das mulheres vítimas de homicídios, com notificação de violência prévia, pode contribuir para a formulação de políticas públicas de proteção e prevenção da violência contra mulher.

Resumen Objetivo Describir el perfil de mujeres víctimas de homicidios intencionales con notificación previa de violencia. Métodos Se trata de un estudio transversal, realizado en el estado de Pernambuco, en el período de 2012 a 2016. Se empleó la relación probabilística entre todas las notificaciones de violencia contra la mujer registradas en el Sistema de Información de Agravios de Notificación y los homicidios de mujeres registrados en el Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad. Resultados Se identificaron 121 homicidios que tenían notificaciones previas de violencia. Las mujeres eran solteras (88,9 %), negras (91,7 %) y con menos de siete años de estudios (80,9 %). La agresión física fue el tipo de violencia más notificado (65,8 %), ocurrida en la residencia (66,7 %) y cometida por la pareja/expareja íntima (51,9 %). El disparo de arma de fuego fue el principal medio utilizado (44,6 %) y la muerte ocurrió en un establecimiento de salud (41,3 %). Mujeres con notificación previa de violencia tuvieron un riesgo de homicidio 65,9 veces mayor, en comparación con la población general de mujeres. Conclusión Describir el perfil de mujeres víctimas de homicidios con notificación de violencia previa puede contribuir a la formulación de políticas públicas de protección y prevención de la violencia contra la mujer.

Abstract Objective To describe the profile of women victims of intentional homicides and with prior notification of violence. Methods This is a cross-sectional study carried out in the state of Pernambuco from 2012 to 2016. Probabilistic relationship was used between all notifications of violence against women registered in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, and the homicides of women, registered in the Mortality Information System. Results 121 homicides were identified with previous reports of violence. Women were single (88.9%), black (91.7%) and had less than seven years of study (80.9%). Physical aggression was the most reported type of violence (65.8%), occurring at home (66.7%) and committed by a partner/ex-intimate partner (51.9%). Firearm firing was the main method used (44.6%) and death occurred in a health facility (41.3%). Women with prior notification of violence had a 65.9 times higher risk of homicide when compared to the general population of women. Conclusion Describing the profile of women victims of homicides, with prior notification of violence, can contribute for formulating public policies for the protection and prevention of violence against women.

Exploring Change in Trend of Homicide Incidence Rate in Iran from 2006 to 2016: Applying Segmented Regression Model.

BACKGROUND: Murder is one of the public health problems. According to the WHO reports, murder is fourth leading cause of death among young people. The aim of this study was applying joint point regression model to study trend of homicide mortality in Iran, 2006-2016. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional panel (pseudo-panel) study. METHODS: Homicide data during 2006 to 2016 were extracted from Iranian legal medicine organization. Trends of homicide incidence were summarized by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) using non-linear segmented regression model. RESULTS: Totally, 26918 homicide cases occurred during the period from 2006 to 2016. The highest and lowest frequency was related to the 15-29 yr (46.5%) and 0-4 yr (1.5%) age groups, respectively. The homicide incidence rate of the country in 2016 was 2.81 per 100,000. The four provinces of Sistan & Baluchistan, Khuzestan, Kerman and Ilam had the highest incidence rate in 2016, respectively. During the study period, the incidence rate of homicide in Iran and men have been significantly decreased (APC: -2.8% (95% CI: -3.9, -1.7) and -3.2% (95% CI: - 4.5, -1.8) respectively (P<0.001)). CONCLUSION: The pattern of homicide rate has a downward trend in the country. Moreover, the varying observed trends in some provinces can be due to the variability in mental, geographical, socio-economic and cultural conditions in each region.

Homicide committed by individuals with severe mental illnesses: A comparative study before and after the Tunisian revolution of January 14th, 2011.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have established a correlation between the increase of homicide rates, and economic crises and rapid social changes following historical events. We propose to analyse the impact of the Tunisian Revolution on homicide rates in Tunisia in a clinical population. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective comparative study of all individuals who commited an homicide and were admitted, at least once, to the forensic psychiatry unit in Razi Hospital between January 1st, 2004 and December 31st, 2018 after a decision of irresponsibility by reason of insanity. RESULTS: The number of homicides committed by the individuals with mental illness included in our study was multiplied by a factor of 1.3 after the revolution, with a prevalence of 11.0% between 2004 and 2011, compared to a prevalence of 14.7% during the period 2011-2018. No significant difference was noted between the two groups regarding the socio-demographic characteristics or the characteristics of the act committed. CONCLUSION: Our results highlighted that political and socio-economic crises following the Tunisian revolution significantly contributed to an increase of homicide rates in people with severe mental illness. Thus, macro-level socioeconomic determinants would be important to consider in homicide prevention strategies.

The Death of Freddie Gray and Its Impact on Homicides in Baltimore and Maryland.

This study evaluated the impact that Freddie Gray's death on April, 19, 2015, had on homicides within Baltimore, Prince George's County, and the rest of Maryland. The numbers of these deaths were compared in the 2 years prior and after his death. The average number of homicide per month in Baltimore and Prince George's County, but not the rest of Maryland, showed a statistically significant increase in the 2 years after his death, with a sudden spike in homicides in Baltimore immediately following his death. Spatial density ("heat") maps of homicides showed an increase in clustering of deaths after Freddie Gray's demise in portions of Baltimore, particularly near his arrest site. Hot spot maps showed a massive expansion of statistically significant clusters of homicides in areas of West and East Baltimore after his death. An emerging hot spot analysis revealed consecutive hot spots in large areas of West Baltimore with new hot spots prominent along the southern edge of this area. A review of the history of Baltimore, as well as discussions with Baltimore homicide detectives, revealed that prior socioeconomic and political trends likely primed Baltimore for the protests and violence that occurred after Freddie Gray's death. It is probable that a perceived "overcharging" of officers involved in his death by the State's Attorney resulted in a "pullback" from policing that directly led to increased homicides in Baltimore.

Effect of firearms legislation on suicide and homicide in Canada from 1981 to 2016.

Canada implemented a series of laws regulating firearms including background and psychological screening, licensing, and training in the years 1991, 1994, and 2001. The effects of this legislation on suicide and homicide rates were examined over the years 1981 to 2016. Models were constructed using difference-in-difference analysis of firearms and non firearms death rates from 1981 to 2016. In addition, negative binomial regression was used to test for an association between rates of suicide by Canadian Province and firearms prevalence, using licensing rates as a proxy for prevalence. No associated benefit from firearms legislation on aggregate rates of male suicide was found. In men aged 45 to 59 an associated shift from firearms suicide after 1991 and 1994 to an increase in hanging resulted in overall rate ratios of 0.994 (95%CI, 0.978,1.010) and 0.993 (95%CI, 0.980,1.005) respectively. In men 60 and older a similar effect was seen after 1991, 1994, and 2001, that resulted in rate ratios of 0.989 (95%CI, 0.971,1.008), 0.994 (95%CI, 0.979,1.010), and 1.010 (95%CI, 0.998,1.022) respectively. In females a similar effect was only seen after 1991, rate ratio 0.983 (95%CI, 0.956,1.010). No beneficial association was found between legislation and female or male homicide rates. There was no association found with firearm prevalence rates per province and provincial suicide rates, but an increased association with suicide rates was found with rates of low income, increased unemployment, and the percentage of aboriginals in the population. In conclusion, firearms legislation had no associated beneficial effect on overall suicide and homicide rates. Prevalence of firearms ownership was not associated with suicide rates. Multifaceted strategies to reduce mortality associated with firearms may be required such as steps to reduce youth gang membership and violence, community-based suicide prevention programs, and outreach to groups for which access to care may be a particular issue, such as Aboriginals.